YouGove polls? The London commentariat will never learn.

Fool proof computerised mathematical models created ‘no risk’ financial instruments.

Look what happened there?

Computerised models are at the heart of political pollster Holy Writ.

Look what happened there?

According to YouGov, Jeremy Corbyn will be the next Leader of the Labour Party and political commentators are all in a tizz.

The London commentariat really do need to stop Westminster Sushi Bar hopping, get out more and start talking to real men and women, instead of relying on discredited pollster predictions.


Stephen Kinnock…before and after?

Anglicised to his fingertips and European to his core, Stephen Kinnock has presence – which let’s face it, an awful lot of back-bench MP’s do not.

New and uncut, Mr Kinnock is already doffing his cap (not of the cloth variety but metaphorical all the same) at the cameras and making a pretty good job of it. Married to a former Prime Minister of the European school, one cannot help but muse that here is a man of ambition (and no doubt romance) and indeed determination.

There is that something about this new politico, that ‘something’ that tells LFW that Mr Kinnock will not be on the back-benches for long.

His father once said to LFW, “what did you expect, I’m a bloody socialist!”

A chip off the old block?

LFW thinks not.


World class statesmanship – Welsh style!


“Have you got your baccy on you, Iolo? I’m gaspo!” says the First Minister of Wales to his Communications czario, Iolo ap Iolo. A lookalike of the late Archbishop Makarios off to Greece to sort out its problems? Nope. Our Carwyn, sneaking out from an Aida (translated into Welsh, of course) set for a sly roll-up!

The ‘country’s nations’? Are we not one nation – the UK?

Is it not disturbing that politicians and the media, now talk of the ‘country’s nations’ instead of ‘nation’ – that is, the United Kingdom?

Far right, far left? Are either relevant?

Is the distinction between left and right mainstream politics valid in a modern society?

Or is the distinction simply about more distribution of wealth or less? The heavy industry and manufacturing sectors are gone, the fights of Keir Hardie and old socialism no longer fit into a technological age where Tweeting is the New Jerusalem.

Far right, far left? Both have their dangers and both herald a rise in extremism and intolerance. There is also the more shifty, Guardianista/Feminista left wing liberalism that seeks to create a nation whose freedom of speech is castrated in the cause of non-offence to those of an oh so sensitive inclination and sensibility – in other words, an assault on freedom of speech through the coercion of nauseating political correctness.

If Labour is to have a future and appeal to the many, it must burn its facades of ancient socialism and outdated blue collar revolution. It must draw in the moderate mind-set of the British people (with a tinge or two of radicalism when needs must!), speak out, show some character and passion and lastly, dump the greyness of sneaky people-pleasing intent.

George Osborne’s budget was a political master stroke and apart from anything else, as every political columnist, commentator and anybody else’s dog knows:

When a new government wants to put the boot in, do it in the first budget because the Meistersingers (no reference to Wagnerian/ Merkel dominion intended) of the Tory party know full well, that in five years’ time the people will have forgotten all about Welfare Benefit reform and Corbyn angst – if they don’t where the latter is concerned then Labour really has had it, with or without Scottish seats.

Far left, surly and self-righteous rebellions don’t last long, as history reminds us loudly and clearly.

It should also be noted however, that neither does the far right version.

And finally lest we forget, ideology turns men into vicious brutes and annihilates reasoned, rational debate.

PS The Labour leadership contenders must also be getting bloody fed up with all these armchair politicos telling ’em what to do!

Is S4C telling porkies?

Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood has said: “S4C is far more than just a channel; it is a catalyst for creativity with significant cultural and economic benefits. In light of further cuts, S4C faces a fight for survival.

“It is high time for the Assembly to take greater responsibility for broadcasting to secure and prioritise not just S4C, but public broadcasting in general.”

(Incidentally, all the other political parties at the Senate are against cuts to S4C funding. Welsh politicians are experts at bending their knees to minority Welsh language tyranny and never mind what the majority English speakers think.)

The BBC licence fee provides £74m per annum to S4C. Since 1982, it has received £2.2bn of taxpayers’ money (its own figure). It also claims that for every £1 of grant aid, £2.09 is brought in to the Welsh economy. To back this up, it refers to independent research carried out by Arad in 2013, an organisation based in Cardiff no less.

Hefin Thomas of Arad, was duly contacted by LFW and confirmed that much of its business is with the Welsh public sector and that 7 of its 9 staff are Welsh speakers.One cannot help but question this £2.09 of net ‘value added’ it’s come up with?

Firstly, the Welsh creative/arts sector is already subsidised up to the hilt; the cuts to the Arts Council of Wales for instance, are negligible when compared to the rest of the UK’s Arts Councils – not to mention Pinewood’s recent £30m taxpayer hand out.

Secondly, few people watch S4C full stop. It attracts less than 1% of viewers if that, and for some of its programmes it’s zero. BBC Wales could certainly use a haircut too: Welsh language Radio Cymru gets 15 times more subsidy than Radio Cornwall (at the last count £16.2m to £1.2m) and yet they have the same audience figures!

And can you imagine what would happen if Plaid Cymru got its hands on public broadcasting in Wales, let alone Welsh Labour? You could forget Coronation Street and EastEnders, it would be Pobol y Cym or nowt!

Cuts to public services, health, adult education what the hell, let’s keep lobbing billions at the Welsh language and what does it matter that out of the paltry 18% who speak it, less than 4% can actually read and write it.

LFW says: Cut S4C’s funding or get rid of it altogether. It’s a nonsensical luxury the UK economy can ill afford.


Kirsty Williams’ ‘Road map’ for Wales and silence of the lambs, Welsh mediarati style!

Today, Kirsty Williams leader of the Welsh Lib Dems in Cardiff Bay, outlined her ‘Road Map’ for the Assembly elections next May.

LFW was invited to attend, along with sundry sorts and a good contingent from the mainstream Welsh mediarati – BBC Wales, ITV Wales, Western Mail etc

Ms Williams launched into her intentions to ‘re-set the dial’ for her party, as well she might, it is after all in dire need of something.

She immediately admitted the devastation wrought on her party at the general election and pointed out quite fairly in LFW’s view that:

The fact is that the Liberal Democrats decision to form a coalition was the right thing to do for the country, but in many ways wrong for the party.”

Cutting through all the policy quips, the Lib Dems remain a party of progression and social justice. They believe in wealth creation but also fair distribution of said wealth. LFW remains unsure about their policies in relation to rehabilitation of villains and the Human Rights Act – bit too liberally nicey nicey, Woodstock time and dropping food parcels instead of bombs for LFW but what the hell.

In the event the one issue that really caught LFW’s attention, was the Lib Dems position on the Assembly elections re coalition? Kirtsy Williams had this to say:

Will I rule my party out of any future coalitions in Wales? No I will not.  But lessons must be learnt. I will not rule out working with a particular party.

Despite my views expressed earlier on conservatism, I have no overarching wish to pledge to the people of Wales before an election that they can only live under a Labour First Minister. 

“However, the coalition experience at Westminster has meant that what was an already very high bar, has just been raised further.

“The Welsh Liberal Democrats would only ever consider entering Government if we were 100% satisfied with the agreement we secured. We would also only strike a deal if it was entirely clear what polices we had secured.

“And if I may add one further point on this, as the Welsh party has shown: it is entirely possible to achieve your policies, your goals, your values without entering Government.”

And here’s the real ‘rub’ as far as LFW is concerned, you can put all the Lib Dem politicking aside. The Assembly elections could be ground breaking for the Welsh, they could lead to a new order, a new beginning, one that looks out instead of in. One that has learnt from history but doesn’t allow itself to be ruled by it.

No more obsessing about identity and nationalist delusion.

Kirsty Williams is quite obviously keeping an open mind and so she should. The Tories and UKIP are on the ascendant in Wales. UKIP is not just nipping at the ancient Welsh political paradigm, it is biting its heels off, as Ms Williams was first to recognise in her answer to the question posed by LFW:

“What are the Welsh Lib Dems views on the threat posed by Welsh UKIP at the Assembly elections next year?”


“All the Welsh parties are facing a threat from UKIP.”

Recognition then, that UKIP may well change the political face of Wales next year, and if they get into bed with the Tories? In the words of Asquith, we shall have to wait and see.

One last observation:

LFW was one of only four questioners at the end of the speech.

The mainstream Welsh media hacks didn’t ask one question or make one challenge.

Spineless silence of the lambs time, as usual.

So much for an independent and fearless Welsh media holding our politicians to account. So much for rigorous Welsh political commentary, so much for ruthless, political analysis………so much for Welsh democracy.

(Click on LFW’s ‘About’ tab and read its Mission Statement)


Carwyn Jones and his Team Druid blasted by Wales Audit Office!

Peter Black AM has criticised the Welsh Labour Government after a damning report was published today showing that the mechanisms adopted for selling publicly owned property meant that the taxpayer did not benefit from getting full market value at the time of sale but would have to wait for some years to achieve claw back.  

A report published by the Wales Audit Office looks into the Regeneration Investment Fund for Wales’ sale of 16 parcels of publicly-owned land that were sold for about £20m.  The highly critical report found that “Due to flaws from the outset, the Welsh Government and RIFW cannotprovide public assurance that the land and property portfolio sale achieved value for money”.

Peter Black, Welsh Liberal Democrat Shadow Finance Minister said:

“This report is yet another blow to the Welsh Labour Government’s reputation of handling public money and assets.”

Well, as if there is anything new in all this?

Team Druid (or Lehman ap Iolo Inc. as it is known amongst our Welsh speaking Crachach brethren), Wales’ premier corporate investment company, is as inept at selling as it is at buying eg purchasing Cardiff Airport for £52m, way above its market value and this little beauty is just the tip of a financially illiterate Taffy iceberg . 

That’s the trouble with Carwyn and his Team Druid, they are still too busy trying to start up their pleasure cruiser business in Cardiff Bay to be bothered with the inconvenience of sound financial planning and governance. Insiders tell LFW, that they are now having trouble sourcing enough Moet and canapé’s for the Grand Opening – something to do with champagne socialism we are told.

To conclude, as Mr Black says:

“It is clear that there were huge flaws in the process from the outset and it’s worrying this wasn’t picked up earlier.  It’s quite clear there was no understanding by ministers about the running and purpose of the fund.  Tax-payers will rightly be furious at this complete lack of oversight from the Welsh Labour Government. 


A war of attrition by the SNP?

For all the SNP’s  political pronouncements of fairness and respect, one thing and one thing only lies at the heart of their obstructive political strategy:

Destruction of the UK.

Let’s annoy and irritate the English as much as possible. Let’s wear them down by any means, fair or foul and eventually they’ll give in and give us what we want.

A war of political attrition is the name of their game, and before long the rest of the country may well tire and give them what they want – without of course, Bank of England bail out insurance and without any form of security or help from the rest of the UK come what may.

LFW’s view?

The time has come to let the Scots go and do their own thing.

Be it on their heads.


Far left politics are not for the modern world.

Few would countenance the extremes of Friedman and his Chicago boys. Equally, LFW believes that few agree with far left political and economic financial dystopia, as clearly evidenced by recent events in Greece.

The Brits are a fundamentally moderate lot, thus their rejection of rebellious upheaval since 1688, and even this ‘Glorious Revolution’ was managed without a shot being fired in anger. They also have a tendency to vote for safety play, particularly where their savings, mortgages and pensions are concerned, thus the Scottish referendum result – an element in the Scottish psyche that many political commentators ignored:

Everything is down to those last few seconds in the ballot box and money will always, always win the day – the London commentariat, the polling soothsayers and the political media all screwed things up at the last general election and why?

They ignored one of the less attractive characteristics of the human condition – greed.

In the election, Labour fell into the trap of side-stepping the above with wails of social justice and dastardly inequality – noble enough aims in a socialist Utopian hinterland, but no longer realistic.

British society has moved on. Ambition and aspiration have changed since the Thatcher years. They really have become the  new most worshipful straplines, unpalatable to many perhaps but true.

Play the game of avarice and greed Labour, new and old, and no doubt you will win out in the end.

Far left politics have had it.